Interest rates are inherently difficult to predict, and the simple random walk benchmark has proven hard to beat. But macroeconomics can help, because the long-run trend in interest rates is driven by ...

Econometric Theory provides an authoritative outlet for original contributions in all of the major areas of econometrics. As well as articles that embody original theoretical research, the journal ...

Theory that stock price changes from day to day are accidental or haphazard; changes are independent of each other and have the same probability distribution. For a simple random walk, the best ...